Project TBD Memory Vault

2026-04-12-brainstorm-idea-space-exploration

4 min read

Brainstorm — Idea Space Exploration

Phase: 2 — Brainstorm

Project: project-tbd

Date: 2026-04-11

Confidence: N/A (exploration, not assertions)

Context

Project TBD’s situation is unusual for a brainstorm: there is no single fixed idea to vary. The founders have a broad thesis (semiconductor supply chain intelligence powered by a digital twin) with a specific wedge (compliance) and multiple possible endgames (intelligence platform, financial products, marketplace, government infrastructure). This brainstorm stress-tests which sequence and emphasis creates the most viable company given the constraints: 2 founders, no funding, Stanford summer stipend.

Variation 1: “The Charter” — Full Vision, Compliance Wedge First

This is the current plan as written in the charter document.

Build compliance SaaS (supplier onboarding, export controls, UFLPA), use the data exhaust to construct the digital twin, then layer on intelligence, financial products, and the marketplace.

  • What’s exciting: Maximally ambitious. Compliance revenue funds the data asset. Every layer compounds.

  • What’s risky: Competing with Altana ($344M raised) and Exiger ($1.2B) on the compliance wedge day one. Enterprise compliance sales cycles are 6-18 months. Budget is a Stanford stipend.

  • Competitive landscape shift: Faces the full 16-company dossier.

Variation 2: “The Government Beachhead”

Skip commercial compliance. Go directly for a U.S. government design partnership.

  • What’s exciting: One contract could leapfrog years of commercial data accumulation. Government mandates data sharing. Palantir alumni network opens doors.

  • What’s risky: Government procurement is slow, bureaucratic. Altana already has CBP relationships. Two MBA students without clearances face a credibility gap.

Variation 3: “The Semiconductor Platts”

Skip compliance entirely. Build a price reporting and market intelligence service for semiconductors.

  • What’s exciting: Directly addresses the “semis are the new oil” thesis. No direct competitor in semiconductors. BMI ($500M) proved the playbook in battery minerals.

  • What’s risky: Price data for non-fungible goods is methodologically hard. Data acquisition without compliance wedge requires different sources.

Variation 4: “The Parametric Insurance Play”

Lead with the financial product, not the software. Partner with a reinsurer to develop parametric insurance products for semiconductor supply chain disruption.

  • What’s exciting: Descartes Underwriting ($200M+ GWP) proved parametric insurance at scale. No one has done it for semiconductors. Dustin’s finance background is a direct fit.

  • What’s risky: Requires a reinsurance partner and MGA license. Pricing semiconductor risk parametrically requires data you don’t have yet.

Variation 5: “The UFLPA Sniper”

Narrow the compliance wedge to a single pain point: UFLPA compliance for semiconductor companies.

  • What’s exciting: Extremely focused. One regulation, one industry, one product. Could be built this summer. The data produced feeds the digital twin directly.

  • What’s risky: Niche might be too small for venture-scale ambitions. UFLPA enforcement could shift with political winds.

Variation 6: “The AI Analyst for Semis”

Build an AI-powered research and analysis service for semiconductor supply chain questions.

  • What’s exciting: Lowest capital requirement. Can start immediately with public data + LLMs. Revenue from day one.

  • What’s risky: Consulting/services are hard to scale and raise VC for. No proprietary data moat.

Variation 7: “The Supply Chain Palantir”

Build Palantir Forward Deploy for semiconductor companies. Bespoke deployments.

  • What’s exciting: Highest revenue per customer. Bliss has direct experience. First customer funds product development.

  • What’s risky: Doesn’t build multi-tenant data asset. Services-heavy. Palantir took 17 years and billions.

Cross-Cutting Analysis

  1. The compliance wedge has the most competition. Altana, Exiger, Kharon, Descartes, SAP/Oracle.

  2. The pricing/financial products layer has the least competition. Nobody has built semiconductor price indexes or parametric insurance.

  3. Narrower wedge = faster execution. UFLPA sniper could ship this summer vs. years for full charter.

  4. Data acquisition is the core strategic question. Every variation solves it differently.

  5. “Companies won’t share data” is strongest against multi-tenant model. UFLPA and bespoke deployments sidestep this.

Questions for the Founders

  • Does the UFLPA sniper feel like a realistic summer build?

  • Does the government beachhead feel accessible given Bliss’s Palantir network?

  • Does Semiconductor Platts excite you as the long-term identity?

  • Is there a hybrid — e.g., UFLPA sniper as summer MVP feeding a government beachhead conversation?

Sources: Charter Document; Company Dossier; Quarterly Goals; Founder intake interview (April 2026)

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