Project TBD OnePager

Project TBD J Bliss Perry + Dustin J Ross

We are building a multi-tenant, proprietary digital twin of the semiconductor industry - a structured ontology of firms, products, financial flows, and logistics relationships that enables intelligence, risk management, and financial products no one else can offer.

The Wedge: Compliance

We enter the market by solving unavoidable, regulated workflows. Every compliance check produces the proprietary data that powers the digital twin:

  1. Supplier Onboarding: Vet new suppliers against restricted entity lists, sanctions databases, and forced labor regulations.
  2. Shipment Diligence: Verify export/import compliance (ITAR, EAR) for every shipment before it moves.
  3. Mandatory Disclosures: Prepare and file government-required paperwork (EU Battery Passport, CFIUS, UFLPA, beneficial ownership).

The Platform: Digital Twin Intelligence

The compliance data feeds a sequenced intelligence platform, each layer building on the last:

Agentic SimulationAI-native scenario modeling of supply chain shocks. Analysts interact conversationally with the digital twin to stress-test assumptions in real time.
AlertingReal-time disruption detection with automated impact diagnosis and recommended actions.
PredictionForward-looking risk models that anticipate bottlenecks, concentration risk, and cascading failures.
RemediationAutomated rerouting and contingency planning when disruptions are detected or predicted.
MarketplaceCross-customer matching of supply and demand - the transactional layer of the semiconductor supply chain.

The Big Swings

  • Parametric Insurance: Digital twin enables custom parametric policies priced off real-time supply chain state - originate + syndicate without balance-sheet risk.
  • Prediction Market Middleware: Combine proprietary ontology with prediction market data (Polymarket, Kalshi) to build institutional-grade risk transfer products for systematic supply chain risk.
  • Government Design Partnership: Build back-end infrastructure for U.S. government semiconductor supply chain oversight - one contract, one-shot data asset.
  • Capacity Intermediation: Evolve from intelligence platform to transactional fabric - facilitating capacity reservations and intermediating liquidity during shocks.

We Are Asking

  • Who in the semiconductor value chain has the most acute compliance pain? Where should we start?
  • Who should we be talking to - in industry, government, and investment - to pressure-test this thesis?
  • What does a compelling first demo look like, and who would we show it to?