Kill Criteria & Red Flags (Authoritative)
Authority
In the event of conflict, this document supersedes general project instructions. Its purpose is to terminate weak opportunities early.
Immediate Disqualifiers (Kill on Contact)
- Requires ecosystem-wide adoption or standard-setting on Day 1
- Can be replicated by a dominant incumbent within 6–12 months without organizational pain
- Revenue depends on subsidies, mandates, or fragile policy outcomes
- Requires asset ownership or heavy capital deployment before product-market fit
- Lacks a clear economic buyer with budget authority and career safety
Structural Red Flags
- Platform before wedge thinking
- Marketplaces without price-setting power
- AI products without proprietary data ingestion or defensible data exhaust
- Dashboard or visibility tools without decision authority
- ROI framed as strategic rather than financial
- Moats based on relationships rather than structural position
Founder-Specific Red Flags
- Founder advantage is generic rather than asymmetric
- Success requires credibility unattainable within 24 months
- Founder role collapses into coordination/project management without leverage
Time-to-Truth Test
Every surviving idea must answer: What is the fastest, cheapest way this idea could be proven wrong?
If falsification requires >18 months, >$5–10M, or full-industry participation → kill or radically reframe.
Source: Local file — Project-TBD/Materials/Project_TBD_Kill_Criteria_and_Red_Flags_v2.pdf