Kill Criteria & Red Flags (Authoritative)
Authority
In the event of conflict, this document supersedes general project instructions. Its purpose is to terminate weak opportunities early.
Immediate Disqualifiers (Kill on Contact)
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Requires ecosystem-wide adoption or standard-setting on Day 1
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Can be replicated by a dominant incumbent within 6–12 months without organizational pain
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Revenue depends on subsidies, mandates, or fragile policy outcomes
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Requires asset ownership or heavy capital deployment before product-market fit
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Lacks a clear economic buyer with budget authority and career safety
Structural Red Flags
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Platform before wedge thinking
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Marketplaces without price-setting power
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AI products without proprietary data ingestion or defensible data exhaust
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Dashboard or visibility tools without decision authority
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ROI framed as strategic rather than financial
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Moats based on relationships rather than structural position
Founder-Specific Red Flags
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Founder advantage is generic rather than asymmetric
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Success requires credibility unattainable within 24 months
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Founder role collapses into coordination/project management without leverage
Time-to-Truth Test
Every surviving idea must answer: What is the fastest, cheapest way this idea could be proven wrong?
If falsification requires >18 months, >$5–10M, or full-industry participation → kill or radically reframe.
Source: Local file — Project-TBD/Materials/Project_TBD_Kill_Criteria_and_Red_Flags_v2.pdf