Petal Notes — Research Gaps & Validation

Data-Thin Petals & Research Gaps

Contingent Business Interruption (CBI) / Named Supplier Programs: Described as “fastest-growing specialty line” but no hard market-size figure found. Need: global CBI premium estimate (try Lloyd’s Market Association or Swiss Re Sigma reports).
Political Risk / Trade Disruption / Export-Control: The $5–8B estimate is inferred from multiple sources, not a single authoritative figure. Need: interview a Lockton Edge or WTW political risk broker for segment sizing.
Battery Performance & Warranty Insurance: Market-size estimate ($2–5B+) is rough. Need: Munich Re or Swiss Re public disclosures on battery warranty book size.

Semiconductor Market Data & Pricing: Most speculative petal. No hedging products exist. Need: validate whether any semiconductor price index has ever been attempted (check CME/ICE historical product filings).
Battery & Critical Minerals Pricing: Lithium futures are nascent (CME launched lithium hydroxide futures in 2021). Need: current open interest data from CME/LME.
Physical Commodity Trading Houses: “Glencore for semis” aspiration is speculative. Need: case study on how commodity trading houses built initial moats.

Supply Chain Visibility / Control Tower: Steve Blank’s ~3,000 company estimate not independently verified. Need: narrow down which serve critical/defense industries.
Battery Analytics & Digital Twin: TWAICE and Accure are main named players. Need: verify Accure and NOVUM funding rounds, confirm Voltt is still active.
Insurance Underwriting Data Feeders: Verisk’s $35B market cap is accurate but mostly NatCat/property. Need: validate with Lloyd’s Innovation Lab whether supply-chain data feeds are on their roadmap.

Lloyd’s survey statistics (88% / 81% / 81%): Verify exact source and publication date before citing to Steve Blank.
IUMI global cargo premium ($22.1B, 2023): Confirm this is the latest figure.
Trade credit market (~€16B premium, ~€9.25T supported): Verify if total market or just Big 3’s share.
Recorded Future acquisition (~$2.65B by Mastercard): Confirm deal closed and final price.
Supplyframe acquisition (~$830M by Siemens): Verify final acquisition price.
Cat bond market (~$45B outstanding): Check Artemis.bm for latest.
Steve Blank’s semiconductor time-decay pushback: Confirm exact framing before presenting back.

Kettle (wildfire parametric, $45M raised)
FloodFlash (parametric flood, $15M raised)
Coalition (cyber MGA, $520M+ raised) — best analog for “data-advantaged MGA” model

TWAICE role: Appears as both insurance partner (Diagram 1) and competitor (Diagram 3). Needs explicit resolution.
Market size estimates: Insurance report uses premium-based sizing; hedging uses revenue-based. Not directly comparable.
“~3,000 companies”: Steve Blank’s estimate, not independently verified.
Compliance wedge starting vertical: Insurance report recommends BESS warranty. Intelligence report recommends semiconductor compliance. Different starting points with different customer bases.