Project TBD (Value Chain Exploration)

J Bliss Perry + Dustin J Ross

If semiconductors are the “new oil,” why can’t we have similar market intelligence and risk management tools? Our hypothesis is to complete the analogy with oil by building financial and analytical infrastructure — price indexes, hedging tools, risk/insurance products — for semiconductors and/or other critical industries to US national interest.

Core to building this financial and analytical infrastructure is the compilation of a supply chain intelligence data asset that transforms fragmented industrial data into system-level insight.

Our proposed roadmap is dependent on building such a data asset:

1. Identify initial wedge for data acquisition: incentivize initial acquisition of proprietary data by providing solution for unavoidable and regulated workflow (e.g. compliance).
2. Scale data asset: leverage network effects to scale the data asset and enable more powerful product features such as simulation and shock response, attracting more customers and growing the data asset in a self-reinforcing cycle.
3. Leverage data asset to build financial and analytical infrastructure products: apply this aggregated data asset towards downstream financial and insurance products.

The proprietary data asset enables four scalable extensions:

1. Hedging & Benchmark Layer: create capacity utilization indices and lead-time volatility benchmarks that underpin parametric shortage hedges and forward allocation contracts; begin with price discovery; expand toward clearing as authority compounds.
2. Insurance & Structured Risk Products: model yield risk, concentration exposure, chokepoint correlation, and export-control shocks to structure continuity, output, and political risk insurance; originate + syndicate policies (SageSure-style), capturing underwriting economics w/o holding balance-sheet risk.
3. Real-Time Intelligence & Marketplace: live node stress indicators, alternative sourcing simulation, and anonymized excess inventory matching; this deepens engagement and embeds our indices into operational decisions.
4. Trading & Capacity Intermediation (long-term): leverage benchmark authority and system-wide visibility to structure capacity reservations and intermediate liquidity during shocks.

We are asking your perspective on the following:

• Is semiconductor manufacturing a compelling industry for initial focus? What about batteries?
• Is compliance (ie Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, EU Battery Passport) a compelling wedge towards building proprietary data asset?
• What is the right next step? With whom should we connect to probe these hypotheses?