Oil-Analog Canon (Condensed)

Purpose

Accelerates structural matching and prevents shallow or metaphorical oil analogies. Each archetype reflects a durable mechanism of economic power.

Archetypes

Trading Houses (Vitol, Glencore)

Function: Price discovery, liquidity provision, risk arbitrage.

Value Capture: Information asymmetry plus balance sheet and optionality.

Pipelines & Midstream (MLPs)

Function: Capacity reservation and toll collection.

Value Capture: Contracted cash flows and high switching costs.

Reserve-Backed Finance

Function: Monetizing future production today.

Value Capture: Financial engineering and risk pricing.

Futures & Derivatives Markets

Function: Risk transfer and temporal smoothing.

Value Capture: Transaction fees and market centrality.

OPEC-Style Governance

Function: Supply coordination and quota setting.

Value Capture: Scarcity management and price stabilization.

Spot vs Contract Market Evolution

Function: Balancing flexibility and stability.

Value Capture: Optionality premiums.

Canon Rule

If an industry exhibits the same structural conditions oil once did but lacks these layers, that absence represents latent, founder-buildable opportunity.

Source: Local file — Project-TBD/Materials/Project_TBD_Oil_Analog_Canon.pdf