EE 292P: Atoms, Bits (Feb 24)

Attendees: Dustin J Ross Date: February 24, 2026 Type: Class Session

Summary

Course Context & Structure

• EE 292P: Atoms, Bits, and National Interest class session
• Guest speaker: John Hartley (economist, Stanford PhD, Hoover Institution policy fellow)
  • Background: Goldman Sachs, World Bank, IMF, US Congress Joint Economic Committee
  • Runs podcast on capitalism, multiple research affiliations including UT Austin
• Class progression: semiconductors → computing → applications → innovation → society → economics → geopolitics

AI Adoption Research Findings

• Survey methodology: nationally representative surveys across countries asking about generative AI use at work
• Global adoption rates: ~40-45% in Anglosphere countries (US, New Zealand, Australia, UK)
  • Lower adoption in Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Japan
• US timeline trends:
  • ChatGPT launch: November 2022
  • Massive surge: early 2024
  • Adoption plateau/decline: second half 2024
  • Recent recovery trend

Adoption Patterns by Demographics

• Education correlation: higher education = higher AI tool usage
• Industry breakdown (highest to lowest usage):
  1. Information services/programming
  2. Management/consulting companies
  3. Real estate
  4. Education, construction
  5. Agriculture, mining, government/military, healthcare (lowest)

Productivity Impact Analysis

• Time savings data across tasks:
  • Writing: 25 minutes with AI vs 80 minutes without
  • Significant time savings (~1 hour) across various tasks
• User behavior: 85% report AI helps complete tasks faster (complement), 15% report AI completes entire tasks (substitute)
• Income distribution effects: U-shaped curve with highest time savings for lowest income and highest income workers

Labor Market Effects Study

• Methodology: difference-in-differences analysis comparing high AI-exposure vs low AI-exposure occupations
• Key findings: minimal statistically significant labor market impact so far
  • No major changes in job postings, employment levels
  • Slight negative wage effect but economically small
• Conclusion: limited evidence of massive job displacement to date

Economic Theory Implications

• Creative destruction concept (Schumpeter): dynamic markets allow new technologies to disrupt established companies
• Policy tension: protecting existing companies vs allowing innovation
• Current debate: open-weight models vs closed foundation models
• Productivity-wage relationship questions: productivity gains not always immediately reflected in wages