EE 292P: Atoms, Bits, and National Interest (Jan 6)

Attendees: Dustin J Ross Date: January 6, 2026 Type: Class Session

Summary

13-week course combining semiconductor technology with policy implications
Teaching team: Professor Ali, Professor Shravanti Chowdhury (EE), Tom Lee (circuit design), Joe Mata (VC/computer scientist)
Guest lecturer: Steve Blank (entrepreneurship, national security policy)
Format: lectures, invited talks, panel discussions (110-minute sessions)
Structure: Start with semiconductors/materials → build up to computing → applications → economy/society/law → globalization/competition

Moore’s Law significantly slowed - only handful of companies (TSMC, Intel, Samsung) can innovate at leading edge
Dennard scaling ended - voltage scaling no longer viable
Von Neumann architecture limitations - memory/processor separation creates energy-intensive data movement
Most chips now power-limited rather than technology-limited
Solution focus: Efficiency metrics (performance per watt, operations per watt)

92% of US GDP growth (first half 2025) came from information processing and software
Debate: Economic growth measurement challenges in digital age
Company lifespan in S&P 500: 35+ years (1970s) → 10-12 years (now)
40%+ of public companies are venture-funded
Hardware/software investment ratio shifted dramatically since 2012

Semiconductor manufacturing most complex in world - atomic-level engineering
Leading-edge fab cost: $20-30B for 3-5nm, potentially $50B for 2nm
Single wafer processing: 2,500+ steps, 2-3,000 gallons water per wafer
50-year evolution: 3M transistors (4-inch wafer) → 15-30 trillion transistors (12-inch wafer)
5 million times increase in transistor density over 50 years

Five companies globally make chip manufacturing equipment
- ASML (Netherlands): photolithography
- KLA, Lam Research, Applied Materials (US): wafer processing
- Tokyo Electron (Japan): wafer processing
Materials supply chain highly specialized by country
Ukraine: neon supply; Israel: RF components; various countries control critical materials
TSMC: ~2/3 of most advanced chips globally

“Semiconductors are the oil of the 21st century” - Steve Blank
China’s largest import: semiconductors (more than oil)
US 6th largest export: semiconductors
Taiwan invasion timeline: China aims for “reunification” by 2027 (Communist Party centennial)
US export controls (October 2022): Blocked semiconductor equipment exports to China
China building parallel semiconductor ecosystem - currently 1-2 generations behind

$53B in incentives for domestic fab construction
Not full funding - matching incentives to offset cost differential vs Taiwan
TSMC Arizona fabs: ~2% of TSMC total capacity
Workforce challenges: Skills gap, cultural differences (24/7 fab operations vs work-life balance)
Missing elements: Insufficient workforce development, compensation incentives

“Big Fund” national investment program (many executives arrested for fraud by 2022)
Shanghai Stock Exchange created for semiconductor startups
More fabs under construction in China than anywhere else
Developing alternative technologies (synchrotron-based lithography vs EUV)
National imperative with “gun to their head” - will likely succeed eventually