Strategic Supply Chain Research Framework
ACTIONABLE GENERALIZATIONS:
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What are points of maximum volatility?
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What are points of maximum fragility? (Chokepoint, bottleneck)
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Where does AI change the external industry landscape in the medium term future?
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Where does AI change the internal operating models most in the medium term future?
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How large is the opportunity (in terms of both TAM and WTP of prospective customers)?
I. Physical & Network Structure
A. Supply Chain Stages
B. Network Topology
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Approx. number of tiers:
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Hub-and-spoke or distributed?
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Where is complexity concentrated (upstream/downstream)?
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Any serial dependencies (where one failure halts entire chain)?
C. Concentration & Fragility
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Top 3 firms by critical stage:
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% of global capacity controlled by top 3:
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Single points of failure:
II. Geographic & Political Topology
A. Geographic Distribution by Stage
B. Political & Trade Exposure
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Export controls affecting this industry:
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Sanctions or embargo risk:
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Ally vs rival dependency:
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Exposure to chokepoints (straits, ports, etc.):
III. Capital, Time & Scale Dynamics
A. Capital Structure
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Typical capex per facility/unit:
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Asset specificity (low ↔ high):
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Financing structure (private/state/mixed):
B. Time Structure
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Time-to-build new capacity:
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Time-to-repurpose existing capacity:
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Typical asset lifespan:
C. Scaling Properties
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Modular or lumpy expansion?
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Minimum efficient scale:
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Bottlenecks to rapid scaling:
IV. Technology & Substitutability
A. Input Substitutability
B. Technology Lock-in
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Open vs proprietary standards:
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Degree of IP concentration:
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Interoperability challenges:
C. Technological Uncertainty
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Pace of obsolescence:
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Risk of dominant paradigm shifts:
V. Economic & Incentive Structure
A. Unit Economics by Stage
B. Incentive Misalignments
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Where private ROI diverges from system resilience:
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Who underinvests in redundancy and why:
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Externalized risks (onto states, consumers, etc.):
C. Market Failures Observed
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Coordination failures:
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Information asymmetries:
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Underpriced risks:
VI. Governance & Policy Environment
A. Degree of State Involvement
B. Key Policies Affecting the Chain
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Domestic:
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Foreign:
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Anticipated policy changes:
C. Coordination Mechanisms
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Public-private partnerships?
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International coordination?
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Fragmented vs centralized governance?
Risk/Opportunity Analysis
Risk Categories
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Node Risks (Localized Failures): Risks tied to specific firms, sites, or technologies.
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Link Risks (Connectivity Failures): Risks in relationships and flows between nodes.
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Correlated Risks (Systemic Failures): Risks that affect many nodes simultaneously.
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Temporal Risks: Risks arising from time mismatches (e.g. demand spikes)
Opportunity Levers
Structural Levers (Change the Network)?
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Supplier diversification
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Vertical integration
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Geographic reshoring/friendshoring
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Modularization
Operational Levers (Optimize How It Runs)
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Inventory buffers
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Dynamic routing
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Dual sourcing
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Flexible production scheduling
Financial Levers (Change the Cash Flows)
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Hedging
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Long-term contracts
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Capacity reservation agreements
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Risk-sharing contracts
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Insurance
Strategic Levers (Change the Game)
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Joint ventures
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Standard-setting
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Pre-competitive consortia
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IP pooling
Policy Levers
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Subsidies
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Export controls
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Strategic stockpiles
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Mandates