Project TBD Memory Vault

Coffee: Steve Blank / Bliss / Dustin

4 min read

Coffee: Steve Blank / Bliss / Dustin

Attendees: Dustin J Ross, Bliss Perry, Steve Blank Date: January 22, 2026 Type: Advisor Meeting

Summary

Oil Industry Business Model Framework

  • Steve’s core recommendation: Study oil industry as template for semiconductor supply chain opportunities
    • Oil has 100+ years of evolved financial models, business structures, trading mechanisms
    • Multiple ways to profit without touching the commodity itself
    • Hedge funds, private equity, information providers, equipment suppliers all make money
  • Key insight: Semiconductor industry only ~50 years old globally, ~20 years using foundries
    • Missing equivalent financial instruments and business models
    • Opportunity to build what took oil industry decades to develop

Semiconductor Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

  • Memory market example: DRAM manufacturers stopped production to focus on HBM (high bandwidth memory)
    • Predictable shortage would impact PC prices significantly
    • Could have shorted Dell/HP if anticipated correctly
  • Only 3 major memory companies: Hynix, Micron, YMTC (China)
  • Applied Materials equipment ~75% made outside US
  • Critical materials concentrated: Neon, arsenic, chemical polishing compounds
    • Single point failures (e.g., North Carolina polishing company flood)
  • Broad survey approach: Pick 5-6 supply chains, spend 1 week each learning basics
    • Goal: Give 2.5 hour lecture on each supply chain’s structure
    • Then deep dive on one for 90 days, talk to 100+ people
  • Pattern: Broad → Deep → Broad → Deep iteration
  • Look for “we’d pay anything if you could do X” signals
    • Steve has 3 IPOs based on this exact phrase

Business Strategy Framework

  • Critical founder alignment conversation needed: What’s the exit goal?
    • $10M in 18 months vs $1B+ company requires different approaches
    • Decision impacts every strategic choice going forward
  • Don’t confuse national service mission with business opportunity
    • Both valid, but require different approaches and expectations
  • Government agencies already doing this work - could consult/join vs compete

Visualization Platform Concept

  • Dustin’s hypothesis: Software platform for supply chain visualization and risk scoring
    • Layer 1: Basic supply chain mapping and visualization
    • Layer 2: Risk quantification and scoring
    • Layer 3: Sensitivity analysis and scenario planning
    • Layer 4: Trading/transaction capabilities
  • Steve’s response: “Why do 90% of work for 10% of money?”
    • Suggests raising fund to trade on collected data instead
    • PE/hedge funds likely already building proprietary versions

Industry Selection Criteria

  • Steve’s curiosity areas: Nuclear (SMRs for data centers/space), chemicals
  • Avoid “unattainable” sectors: Quantum computing, fusion
    • Quantum: No logical qubits exist yet (only physical qubits)
    • Fusion: No break-even energy containment achieved
    • Both generate press releases for market cap, not actual products
  • Focus on sectors with real technical barriers being solved

Decoupling Thesis

  • World moving from global to national supply chains post-China tensions
  • China played rare earth card successfully, everyone scrambling for alternatives
  • Investment opportunity in national supply chain buildout
  • Unlike oil (can store strategically), semiconductors obsolete in 9 months
  • Need guaranteed orders to justify domestic production facilities

Next Steps

  • Dustin to create research framework document by Saturday
    • Why: Building Excel-backed company
    • How: Present 5-6 industry analysis to Steve in 3 weeks
    • What: Comprehensive research methodology and role assignments
  • Steve offered to present findings back to him
  • Leverage Stanford brand for industry access during research phase
  • Always ask: “What else should we have asked?” and “Who else should we talk to?”

Co-founder Signal Debrief

Sourced from Signal chat, 2026-02-18

Post-meeting reaction: “We fucking crushed that. There will be highs and there will be lows. Enjoy the highs and celebrate the small wins — this was a win.”

Key outcomes from this meeting:

  • Blank recommended they talk to Steve Weinstein (H4D mentor) → led to Feb 18 outreach
  • Blank’s advice reinforced: pitch the narrow compliance wedge only, not the full 3-step vision, for applications/pitches
  • Blank confirmed credibility value of his name: Ann Miura-Ko later noted “the Steve Blank name goes a long way”
  • Decision made post-meeting: schedule next Blank meeting only after having a working prototype to show (Blank later canceled Apr 7; founders planned to use tactical plan doc as re-engagement artifact)

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