Semis Framework Test (Bliss + Dustin)

Attendees: Dustin J Ross, Bliss Perry Date: February 5, 2026 Type: Partner Session

Summary

Started late due to scheduling confusion (thought 1:30 vs 1:00)
Extended meeting by 15 minutes to 2:50 PM hard stop
Success criteria: Develop up to 3 hypotheses for testing with remaining 4 supply chains
Agenda: Share insights → Deep dive analysis → Concrete product hypotheses → Next steps

Bliss’s Three Insights:

Complexity vs. Resilience Distinction
- Complex supply chains aren’t necessarily unresilient
- Semis have structural bottlenecks: geographic concentration, high CapEx, human capital constraints, high lock-in
- Oil comparison: complex but flexible (can reroute, blend sources, move refineries)
Resilience as Public Good
- Foundries absorb shocks by passing prices to customers due to market power
- No incentive for proactive resilience investment without compensation
- Government subsidies currently only mechanism driving resilience projects
Market-Driven Resilience Opportunities
- Missing mechanisms that exist in oil: OPEC-style coordination, futures markets, demand indexes, strategic reserves
- Concept: “Resilience as a Service” (RAS)

Dustin’s Three Insights:

Value Chain vs Supply Chain Focus
- Many value-additive opportunities don’t touch physical supply chain
- Framework shift needed from supply to value chain thinking
Financial/Logistical Infrastructure Gap
- Semis principally lag in financial and logistical mechanisms
- Need to quantify volatility including 2020s chip shortage
Automotive as MVP Candidate
- Hit hardest by chip shortage, understands pain
- Likely willing to pay for solutions

ChatGPT analysis identified missing layers: commodity trading, risk hedging, insurance, strategic buffering, capital formation, market intelligence
All opportunities except strategic buffering are financial products
One data product (market intelligence) similar to initial proposal
Potential to build fintech/financial-first solution rather than pure supply chain tool

Semiconductor Commodity Exchange & Hedging Platform
- High potential but very difficult execution
Independent Trading House (“Glencore of Chips”)
- Challenges: chips aren’t fungible, depreciate over time, Moore’s law effects
- Question: Does Moore’s law death make chips more commoditized?
Insurance & Risk Solutions
- Multiple types: business interruption, parametric, yield/output, political risk
- Example: Chip continuity insurance for automakers (20% delivery shortfall triggers payout)
- Requires actuarial modeling and projections
- SageSure model: issue policies, sell to insurers, no liability held
Real-Time Supply Chain Intelligence Platform
- “Waze for chip supply chain” - crowdsourced information sharing
- Marketplace for excess inventory swapping
- Risk monitoring and alternative sourcing suggestions

All financial products built on same underlying data asset
Eric Schmidt model: collect data through one service, monetize across multiple products
Entry point strategy: use one service to accumulate data capital, expand to other services
Potential path: Intelligence platform → Trading → Commodity exchange → Full financial ecosystem

Dustin’s Homework:

Bliss’s Homework: